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The Great Nuclear Race in South Asia

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DEVELOPMENTS

On March 19, 1998 Atal Bihari Vajpayee, leader of the Hindu-backed BJP parliamentary party was sworn in for the second time as India’s Prime Minister. Though elected on a narrow confidence vote, just six weeks into his tenure the Indian government announced before the surprised nation and the international community that it had conducted three underground nuclear explosions in Pokhran, which would be followed by two more tests two days later.

Amidst ecstatic bravado within the party and country, and many denunciations worldwide, India declared itself a nuclear weapon state, and thus, further kicked dirt on the 1970 UN Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) which it refused to sign. “Our nuclear weapons are meant purely as a deterrent against nuclear adventure by an adversary,” Vajpayee said of the occasion. The rebuke of Vajpayee’s declaration lagged not too far behind: Pakistan followed India’s lead a fortnight later with tests of its own.

Since then, India has come dangerously close to engagement with Pakistan over Kashmir four different times. The country has declared its weapons program “responsible,” despite leading the way for South Asia’s development into a “nuclear flashpoint,” according to P.K. Sundaram, a researcher at the Indian Pugwash Society which studies the conflicts between science and world policy. India brokered a deal with the US two years ago to enable the country to have ’civilian’ nuclear trade - in terms of nuclear fuel, technology, and reactors – primarily with the US, though the country has also invited others to the table. It also managed to skirt inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which applies only to the “civilian” reactors and not the “strategic” (bomb-making) ones. This nuclear option in South Asia has engendered a very real regional push-and-pull, as neighboring powers attempt to respond with their own capabilities, and treaties to balance each other and the U.S.

 

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Democracy in Congo: Fading Prospects Four Years after Elections

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The administration of Congolese President Joseph Kabila has centralized power and stifled opposition since democratic elections four years ago.

 DEVELOPMENTS

In 2006, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) held its first democratic elections in over 40 years. Four years later and exactly 50 fifty years since independence, the DRC has taken an unmistakable turn towards autocratic rule that could destabilize not only the country but the Central African region. The government has stifled the opposition; centralized decision-making into a closed coterie of advisors to the president, Joseph Kabila; and increased threats and attacks against journalists and civil society activists, as underscored by the early June murder of Floribert Chebeya, one of Africa’s most respected human rights defenders.

The next year and a half will be crucial for consolidating any democratic gains that Congo has made. Yet the signs so far are disconcerting. As required by the constitution, the government must hold elections by the end of 2011, but preparations are far behind schedule, making it unlikely that credible elections will be held by then. At the same time, the government has demanded that the United Nations mission in the DRC (known by its French acronym, MONUC) withdraw its entire 20,000-strong mission by late 2011, which would undermine the little security that country has gained in its volatile East.

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An Israeli-Arab Alliance: Inevitable Reality or Illusion?

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The Saudi government has reportedly granted Israel use of Saudi airspace.DEVELOPMENTS

In June, the Saudi government reportedly granted Israel use of Saudi airspace, should Israel decide to conduct air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Combined with Iran’s burgeoning nuclear program, Turkey’s flexing of political and diplomatic muscle in the region, and Egypt’s recent tacit support of an Israeli warship’s passage through the Suez Canal, there are rumbles of tectonic shifts in the Middle East’s geopolitical plates.

Despite these moves, some political dynamics in the Middle East remain fixed. Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are stalled, and anti-Israel sentiment in the Arab street is rampant. However, a convergence of Israeli and Sunni Arab strategic imperatives, spurred by the regional emergence of Iran and Turkey, could pave the way for a tacit alliance of unlikely bedfellows.

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