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Russia Burning: The Case Against a "Winners Theory" of Global Warming

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Moscow Fire AlertDEVELOPMENTS

From historic blizzards to flooding, headlines in 2010 have been dominated by extreme weather—even environmental chaos.  One of the latest victims of Mother Nature’s wrath is Russia, which has experienced its hottest summer in 130 years.

There have been several thousand heat-related deaths in Moscow alone, where the summer’s daily temperatures have hovered around 100 degrees Fahrenheit.  Between June and July 2010, the relentless heat spawned a total of 27,724 fires, destroying approximately 2,000 homes and leaving 1,000 Russian villagers displaced.  The resulting smoky haze–coupled with Moscow’s notorious smog—enveloped the city’s 10 million residents.  By August, reports estimated that the heat wave would kill at least 15,000 and cost the Russian economy $15 billion.  

The unfolding events debunk the myth that Russia is a climate change “winner.”  The “winner” theory posits that Russia stands to gain from increased global temperatures because it could reduce heating costs, lengthen its agricultural season, and access the mineral and energy resources currently buried beneath the Arctic tundra.  A 2007 report issued by the UNDP foreshadowed the crisis, concluding that climate change would not improve conditions in Russia, but rather would exacerbate its existing environmental, economic, and social issues. 

 

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How China Beat the U.S. and Became the New Green Tech Giant

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China is now the global leader in high-speed rail.DEVELOPMENTS

China no longer needs to worry about the U.S. as a serious green technology competitor because the U.S. just left the race. After a year-long impasse, Senate majority leader Harry Reid confirmed on July 22, 2010 that the Democrats would not be able to secure enough votes to pass the American Clean Energy and Security Act and, thus, would abandon any further efforts to do so.

But, in today’s globalized economy, rising powers like China are willing and readily able to capitalize on America’s missed opportunities. The climate change bill would have provided a coherent U.S. energy policy, directed investment to green technology and created much-needed American jobs. Instead, 

those investment and job opportunities will likely go to China. With China’s rapid expansion into the clean technology sector, the U.S. is being left behind and leaving many to wonder--will it ever be able to catch up?

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Climate Change and Continued Conflict in the Sudan

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Darfur

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Without a concerted effort by the international community to curb the harmful effects of climate change in Africa, droughts and famines will increase the likelihood of ethnic and regional conflict. As the German Advisory Council on Global Change warns,“Without resolute counteraction, climate change will overstretch many societies’ adaptive capacities within the coming decades. This could result in destabilization and violence, jeopardizing national and international security to a new degree.”

The Darfur region in the Sudan starkly illustrates this point. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon writes that in the 1980s, crucial rains in southern Sudan became less frequent. Regional farmers became protective of what little water they had and began to fence in their properties to protect their lands from animal herds. Up until that time, regional farmers had gotten along reasonably well with Arab herdsmen, who were primarily nomadic. In 2007, the United Nations Environmental Program reported, “a very strong link between land degradation, desertification and conflict in Darfur. Exponential population growth and related environmental stress have created the conditions for conflicts to be triggered and sustained by political, tribal, or ethnic differences.” The report continues “[Darfur] can be considered a tragic example of the social breakdown that can result from ecological collapse.”  Although an underground source of freshwater the size of Lake Erie was discovered in Darfur, past efforts at water management in Sudan have been poor.

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Children in Focus: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict's Toll on Youth

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Robert A. Friedman is Managing Editor of Foreign Policy Digest.When I last visited Israel over ten years ago, I was struck by the sense of hope and optimism that surged through the region’s youngest generation As an Ambassador for Tolerance, I interacted with both Israeli and Palestinian high school youth and examined relations between Jews and non-Jews as well as between members of Israel’s various social strata. The kids I spoke with exhibited a resiliency that was inspiring, talked openly about confronting stereotypes, and were excited about the prospects for future peace.

But, after ten years of conflict, there are signs that public opinion among Israeli and Palestinian youngsters is changing. The seemingly despondent and intractable nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears to be permeating the ranks of the future leaders of the region. An enthusiasm for peace may be giving way to hardened positions, increased nationalism, and widespread distrust. This trend is troubling not least because today’s high school seniors will be tomorrow’s generals and prime ministers. All of this paints a dreary picture for a region that has been plagued by violence and bloodshed for far too long.

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Towards a Gender-Inclusive Definition of Child Soldiers

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Congolese girls are marginalized even in DDR programs.DEVELOPMENTS

While the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) officially ended in 2003, peace seems tenuous at best, and many victims are still awaiting justice. For some, the best chance for obtaining justice in a conflict that has claimed the lives of over 5.5 million people is through the prosecution of Thomas Lubanga Dyilo. Thousands of miles away from DRC, at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, Lubanga is being tried for crimes related to the use of child soldiers, specifically conscripting, enlisting, and using children under the age of fifteen to participate in hostilities. Lubanga is the alleged founder and president of the armed group, Union des patriotes congolais (UPC). He is also the alleged Commander-in-Chief of the Forces patriotiques pour la liberation du Congo (FPLC).

On July 15, 2010, while the Defense was presenting its case, the ICC’s Trial Chamber I ordered Lubanga released, due to concerns about the ability to conduct a fair trial, following the Prosecution’s failure to implement the Chamber’s order to disclose certain information to the Defense team. The Appeals Chamber has since suspended the decision to release Lubanga, pending the Prosecution’s appeal. The Chamber cited concerns over the ability to resume the trial, should the suspect be released prior to the appellate decision.

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