DEVELOPMENTS

As a direct result of the 30,000 American troop surge in Afghanistan, coalition troops are attempting to capture the Afghan town of Marja, located in the Helmut Province. In the operation that was launched at the beginning of February, thousands of American, Afghan and British soldiers began their assault on the area. Arriving in mine resistant vehicles and by helicopters the assault has largely appeared to be effective.

Add to this development the recent capture of several high ranking Taliban commanders in Pakistan by a joint mission of American and Pakistani intelligence agencies, the progress in Afghanistan towards nullifying the Taliban or rendering their presence a nuisance is possible and illustrates that progress is being made in the nearly decade long struggle.

The American effort in Marja is also significant because instead of focusing on a purely military victory, i.e. killing all remaining Taliban fighters and moving on to the next mission, American and Afghan officials are focusing on rebuilding the governance in the area after years of Taliban rule. To insure that this occurs, a significant number of American and Afghan soldiers will remain in the area to insure that the Taliban are unable to return to establish a foothold in the area again. In order to decrease the chance that corrupt Afghans will assume the reins of power in Marja and the region, the United States has begun flying in Afghan police officers and administrative officials from outside of the area. These officials and officers from the North and elsewhere in the country are perceived to be less corrupt than those from the Helmut Province or Taliban areas. Referencing these government officials, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal had this to say, “We’ve got a government in a box, ready to roll in.”

BACKGROUND

The capture of Mullah Abdul Salam, Mullah Mir Mohammed and Abdul Ghani Baradar in Pakistan poses a significant challenge to the Taliban’s ability to effectively carry on their war effort against NATO forces. Mr. Salam was a shadow governor in Kunduz Province and Mr. Mohammed, also a shadow governor, was based in the Baghlan Province. Mr. Baradar is a deputy to Mullah Muhammad Omar.

Shadow governors, the actual heads of Afghan provinces, make decisions under the direction of the Taliban. Actual governors are governors in name only. As a result of these arrests the Afghan government will be able to effectively clean up the local governments in those provinces and bring in effective leadership, should that exist in Afghanistan. According to the chief of police in the Kunduz Province, Gen. Razaq Yaqoobi, Mullah Salam and Mullah Mohammed “were the most merciless individuals…Most of the terror, executions and other crimes committed in northern Afghanistan were on their orders.”

The operation in Marja combined with the arrests of the key Taliban figures in Pakistan is interrelated to the overall war effort. If civilian deaths can be minimized during the operation, than NATO and American efforts have a chance of succeeding. Minimizing the ability of the Taliban to have effective political and military leadership and killing significant numbers of their foot soldiers will reduce their ability to fight.

It has been reported widely that upwards of 5,000 civilians in Marja had fled ahead of the fighting. Marja has a population of approximately 80,000. Weeks and days ahead of the fighting, coalition and Afghan government officials had made it clear that the offensive, Operation Moshtarak, would commence and the pre-operation warnings were an effort to minimize significant civilian deaths. However, it has been reported that coalition airstrikes and mortar rounds have killed several dozen civilians, including 27 civilians who were killed by helicopter gunships. In response to the news of the deaths, the Afghan government released a statement saying, “The repeated killing of civilians by NATO forces is unjustifiable…We strongly condemn it.”

Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, sensitive to the killing of Afghan civilians, which could lead to an erosion of support for coalition forces in Afghanistan, released a video that was translated into Dari and Pashto. In the video Gen. McChrystal states, “Salam Alaikum. Sunday morning, the International Security Assistance Force, while conducting a mission with Afghan Security Forces, launched an attack…We now believe the attack killed and injured a number of Afghan citizens. I have spoken with President Karzai and apologized to him and the Afghan people. I have instituted a thorough investigation to prevent this from happening again. We are extremely saddened by this tragic loss of innocent lives. I have made it clear to our forces that we are here to protect the Afghan people. I pledge to strengthen our efforts to regain your trust to build a brighter future for all Afghans. Most importantly, I express my deepest, heartfelt condolences to the victims and their families. We all share in their grief and will keep them in our thoughts and prayers.”

President Hamid Karzai was initially hesitant to sign off on the mission in Marja but later Karzai amended his position to supporting the taking of Marja after he understood that reconciliation with the Taliban in the area was unlikely.

The mission in Marja differs significantly from other offensive campaigns by coalition forces because this mission incorporates significant numbers of the Afghan national army units. For every ten U.S. soldiers one Afghan soldier is at their sides as an intrinsic member of the mission. According to John Kael Weston of the U.S. State Department "This is a ratio that the Afghan people want to see, and the American people need to see.”

The Marja mission will likely be labeled successful both by the Afghan people and their national government if the ground captured is retained free of Taliban militants and the newly appointed Afghan political leaders in the area are effective.

Nonstate groups like insurgents will eventually find it difficult to replace key figures among the Afghan who are increasingly weary of their tactics, which seem to mimic the tactics employed by Iraqi insurgents. This tactic primarily relies upon the use of suicide and roadside bombings that more often than not kill innocent civilians.

ANALYSIS

Where to go from here? With the incursion of 30,000 American troops, bringing the total upwards of 100,000 in Afghanistan, the American war effort has a chance of success. This success hinges on several developments.

First, there must be a concerted effort to defeat the Taliban, not on the battlefield alone, but in their hideaways in Pakistan. With the arrest of Mullah Abdul Salam, Mullah Mir Mohammed and Abdul Ghani Baradar significant progress has been made on this front. The Taliban functions much like any other organization. High-ranking officials give orders to their foot soldiers who execute the missions. If further arrests can be made the structure of the Taliban will be further weakened. Second, continued efforts must be made to clean up the corruption that is endemic in the Karzai administration. Once the people of Afghanistan can trust their government, progress can continue.

Finally, military successes like that in Marja must be accompanied by the successful establishment of a civilian government once the Taliban have been eliminated. If these steps are taken then progress that is sustainable will follow.

John Lyman is a columnist for Foreign Policy Digest.

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